2007 July | thetechnicaltrader.net

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Small Cap stocks Portfolio Manager
Symbol
L/S
Entry Date
Entry
Last
G\L Today
Total G\L
????
L
2008-04-16
2.82
3.25
0.00
15.25%
????
L
2008-05-02
2.53
2.65
0.00
4.74%
????
L
2008-05-07
2.85
2.84
0.00
0.35%
????
L
2008-04-28
1.335
1.73
0.00
29.59%
????
L
2008-04-28
0.9915
1.08
0.00
8.93%
????
L
2008-05-13
1.08
1.08
0.00
0%
????
L
2008-05-13
9.5
9.54
0.00
0.42%
Initial Capital = $50000 /10% equity per trade
Total Portfolio Performance:
497.61 %
TTT.net Benchmark Performance
Index
Start Date
Start Value
% change
Current Value
Nasdaq
2006-03-30
2340.82
6.31%
2488.49
DJIA
2006-03-30
11150.7
15.48%
12876.31
S&P500
2006-03-30
1300.25
7.95%
1403.58
TTT.net
2006-03-30
50000
497.61%
298805
S&P 08'
2008-01-01
1467.97
4.39%
1403.58
Last 5 Closed Trades
Symbol
L/S
Entry Date
Exit Date
Bought
Sold
Gain/Loss
CHCG.OB
L
2008-05-05
2008-05-09
1.86
1.69
9.14%
ENT
L
2008-04-28
2008-05-09
2.6
3.04
16.92%
SYNM
L
2008-04-29
2008-05-08
1.335
1.74
30.34%
CSGH.OB
L
2008-04-24
2008-05-08
0.9915
1.26
27.08%
AOB
L
2008-04-24
2008-05-02
9.04
10.07
11.39%
All closed Trades
Last: 12876.31 Change: +130.43
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Untitled Document
Recent Posts on the Message Boards
[Stock Picking] HOGS by mysher May 12, 2008, 06:31:03 PM
[Stock Picking] Re: BBL by mysher May 09, 2008, 03:53:18 PM
[Stock Picking] Re: LAVA by Thegoodlife May 09, 2008, 01:46:19 PM
July 31st, 2007

Dow finds Support, Is the Bleeding Over?

The Dow had a false breakout of its trading channel causing a bull trap to occur sending price down near the lower boundary of the short term trading channel. After last weeks brutal bloodbath which resulted in the largest 1 week decline in the Dow in the last 5 years, it appears that the dow may have found support at the lower boundary of the trading channel. Its to early to say for sure if this is a bullish reversal, but its a good sign to see a decent rally on areas of support. A close below todays low of 13,219 will be a bearish sign that will likely lead to a further decline in the general markets. Next support area in line is around 12,800.dow2.gif

July 31st, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

NTRZ*
CSCT
CHNG*
ACUR
HPRD
AANI*
BIPH

Major Exchanges:

TGB
HBI
VDSI
ARTG

July 30th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

GTRE*
VLYF
AKNS
TIDE
CHLN
SOEN

Major Exchanges:

HOKU
HBI
NTY
BLUD

July 27th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

CXTI
AMNT*
BIPH*

Major Exchanges:

BOBJ
IMLN
CKSW*
BLUD
DXD
AGP
OMTR*
PAS
OI

July 27th, 2007

The Dow Tumbles 311 points. Ouch!

Thursday July 26, 8:03 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer

 

Stocks Plunge on Lending Worries, As Dow Industrials Plunge More Than 310 Points NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses of 2007 Thursday, leading a global stock market plunge as investors succumbed to months of worry about the mortgage and corporate lending markets. The Dow Jones industrials closed down more than 310 points after earlier skidding nearly 450.

Investors who had been able for months to largely shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing finally decided it was time to sell after the Commerce Department issued another disappointing home sales report.

Feeding the plunge were concerns that higher corporate borrowing costs will curb the rapid pace of takeovers that had driven stocks higher this year. Investors also feared the sluggish environment for home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans would spur debt defaults and weigh on corporate earnings.

While stocks plummeted, investors poured money into the safe haven of the bond market. The soaring price of Treasurys pulled yields lower, and the rate on the 10-year note plunged to 4.79 percent from late Wednesday’s 4.90 percent.

“Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now,” said investment strategist Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research Inc. “It’s show time.”

Thursday’s trading was the latest and most extreme in a series of frenetic sessions over the past month — many also accompanied by triple-digit swings in the Dow — as investors sold on worries about the subprime fallout or bought on optimism that there wouldn’t be any widespread problems caused by mortgage failures. Many analysts have described the back-and-forth trading as overwrought and based more on gut emotion than careful consideration of market and economic fundamentals.

That was the feeling again Thursday.

“The rally in bonds at this point looks a little bit overdone,” said Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel Investment Management in Los Angeles. “If you’re going to park money temporarily then cash I think is the way to be but I think that we’re going to form a bottom. I think people are going to be legging it back into the market.”

The Dow plunged 311.50 or 2.26 percent, to 13,473.57 after falling 449.77 in earlier trading. The close was its worst since the 416.02 it lost on Feb. 27, when a drop in the Shanghai stock market rattled world exchanges.

Broader market indicators also slid. The Nasdaq composite index tumbled 48.83, or 1.84 percent, to 2,599.34, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 skidded 35.43, or 2.33 percent, to 1,482.66.

The Russell 2000 index, which reflects the movement of small-company stocks, fell 21.02, or 2.59 percent, to 791.48.

Before Thursday’s big drop, the Dow had been up 10.61 percent for the year — and that margin has now been cut to 8.11 percent. The S&P 500 was up 7.04 percent, and the market decline now puts it at a year-to-date gain of 4.54 percent; while the Nasdaq’s 9.64 percent increase has been cut to 7.62 percent.

The declines triggered a global sell-off in stocks, causing minor losses in Europe to accelerate rapidly along with the Dow’s drop. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 closed down 3.15 percent, Germany’s DAX index dropped 2.39 percent, and France’s CAC-40 fell 2.78 percent.

Markets were closed in Asia before the rout got under way. Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed up 0.88 percent and the Shanghai stock market composite added 0.52 percent to an all-time high.

Wall Street also found more immediate reasons to sell during the session — primarily the home sales figures from the Commerce Department, which further eroded confidence in the housing industry’s ability to rebound.

The department reported that sales of new homes fell 6.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000 units, more than triple what had been expected and the largest percentage drop since sales fell by 12.7 percent in January.

This boosted anxiety after quarterly results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. were squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans.

“Wall Street continues to walk a wall of worry,” said Ryan Larson, a senior equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management. “The housing market continues to be a story, and nobody knows when it will rebound. But, the real concerns are about credit and oil pushing higher.”

Also stunting stocks was the Commerce Department’s disappointing durable goods report. Though sales of big-ticket items increased by 1.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $217.07 billion, durable goods excluding transportation equipment had an unexpected drop.

The Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 301,000 in the week ended July 21, slightly better than analysts’ expectations.

Investors also reacted negatively as oil prices climbed to almost $77 per barrel during the session, stoking the market’s worries about inflation. However, crude pared gains in the afternoon when a barrel of light sweet crude fell 93 cents to $74.95.

It all led to a frantic day for stock traders.

“It has been pretty volatile as of late, but now fears about a credit crunch are spreading more than they have in the past — and that’s causing this drop,” said Matt Kelmon, portfolio manager of the Kelmoore Strategy Funds. “That’s hurting the financials, and now energy companies are joining the party because oil is so high. They make up a large part of the S&P 500.”

Wall Street, now at the peak of second-quarter earnings season, has been extremely volatile lately. On Thursday, declining issues beat advancers by a 14 to 1 basis on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a record 5.84 billion shares, up from 4.14 billion on Wednesday.

Both NYSE Group Inc. and Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. reported that their electronic trading systems were functioning normally, and no problems had been reported.

Ford Motor Co. rose 12 cents to $8.09 after it reported cost-cutting and a turnaround in its core automotive operations pushed its second-quarter to a profit. The company had posted seven quarters of losses as it grappled with sluggish sales and a major overhaul of its operations.

The Nasdaq’s losses weren’t as steep as other major indexes during the session due to strength from Apple Inc., which surged $8.74, or 6.4 percent, to $146.00. The iPod and iPhone maker’s earnings easily surpassed Wall Street projections late Wednesday due to strong sales from its computer offerings.

Home builders sank after several disappointing reports. D.R. Horton fell 32 cents to $17.16 after it posted a fiscal third-quarter loss on charges to write down the value of unsold inventory and deposits on land.

Technically the dow and nasd both look like they may have found some support off of their lows of today as they both made bounces off of the short term ascending trendlines nearing the close. A breakdown of these ascending supports will make the short term technical outlook of the markets bearish.
dow1.gif
nasd31.gif

July 26th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

CPTC
VLYF
RVNG
ACUR*
GSHO
EGMI
VOYT
COGC

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

BQI
JNPR
KEM
LII
SNWL
VRTX
HOS
RFMD
ANAD
PAS

July 26th, 2007

Apple Surges 9.41% after Hours on Record Profits

Apple Posts Record Quarterly Profit
Wednesday July 25, 7:20 pm ET
By May Wong, AP Technology Writer

 

Apple Posts Record Profit in Fiscal 3rd Quarter, Reports 270,000 IPhones Sold in First 2 Days SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) — Apple Inc.’s fiscal third-quarter profit soared more than 73 percent, fueled by demand for its Macintosh computers and the strength of its iPod media players.The company also said Wednesday it sold 270,000 iPhones in the first two days on the market, though the multimedia handset had little impact on the quarter’s results because the company plans to account for its sales as subscription revenue over two years.

Apple shares jumped more than 8 percent in extended-session trading Wednesday even as the company issued a conservative outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.

For the quarter ended June 30, Apple’s profit rose to $818 million, or 92 cents per share, up from $472 million, or 54 cents a share in the year-ago quarter.

Sales grew to $5.41 billion from $4.37 billion last year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected Apple to report earnings of 72 cents per share on sales of $5.28 billion, while Apple itself had projected earnings of 66 cents per share on quarterly sales of $5.1 billion.

“We’re thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit in Apple’s history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s chief executive. “IPhone is off to a great start — we hope to sell our one-millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales — and our new product pipeline is very strong.”

But for the quarter ending in September, Apple said it expects to earn about 65 cents per share on revenue of about $5.7 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of 83 cents per share on sales of $6 billion.

The gadget maker’s highly anticipated iPhone launched June 29 and sold out within days. Wall Street analysts and investors have had lofty expectations for the multimedia cell phone, driving up Apple’s stock more than 30 percent during the quarter.

Apple’s silence on how many iPhones were available at launch added to the frenzy, and analysts were hoping to gain some insight on the iPhone’s initial sales impact and outlook when the Cupertino-based company discussed its quarterly earnings during a conference call late Wednesday.

Apple officials reiterated the company’s target of selling 10 million iPhones in 2008 but declined to elaborate on how much of a cut it will be getting from exclusive service provider AT&T Inc. under their multiyear deal.

During the June quarter, revenue from iPhones and iPhone accessories totaled $5 million, the company said. Shared revenue from AT&T was not included, it said.

Apple’s established products were the money makers. The company said it shipped a record 1.76 million Macs, up 33 percent from the year-ago period, accounting for $2.5 billion, or more than 60 percent of the quarter’s revenues. Unit sales of iPods increased by 21 percent from last year to 9.8 million and generated $1.57 billion in revenue.

Yet all eyes were on Apple’s newest cell phone gizmo, and investors seemed uncertain at first with how to react to Apple’s financial report.

Before Apple’s results were announced, its shares rose $2.37, or 1.8 percent, to close at $137.26. Then in heavy-volume trading after hours, shares as fell as much as 6 percent before they rose more than 8 percent to $148.42.

Just the day before, on Tuesday, Apple shares tumbled more than 6 percent after AT&T Inc. said it activated 146,000 iPhones on June 29 and 30, a number that disappointed investors following some analyst forecasts that Apple would sell 500,000 or more iPhones in its first weekend.

The reason for the discrepancy between Apple’s and AT&T’s numbers was unclear. But service activation problems may be the reason, and Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer apologized during the analyst call for the “less-than-stellar” activation experience some early iPhone customers had.

“I think initially there was initially some disappointment in the 270,000 iPhone units, but as people realized the gross margins came in at 37 percent, they were very encouraged by the profitability of the company,” said Caris & Co. analyst Shebly Seyrafi. “Clearly, Apple is a growth story.”

July 25th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

SOBM
NTRZ - ROCK BOTTOM?
ABAT - NICE VOLUME, UGLY CANDLE
GSHO*

Major Exchanges:

EMKR
LKQX
CKSW
CRNT
UCTT
DPZ*
CHKP*
GGBM*

July 23rd, 2007

Open Energy Corp (OEGY.OB) – Small Cap Solar Stock With its Foot in the Door

Company Overview:
Development and commercialization of solar energy products and technologies for a wide range of applications including power production and water desalination.

· Offers building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) roofing materials for commercial, industrial, and residential markets. Marketed under the trade name SolarSave®, the product line includes roofing membranes, roofing tiles, custom architectural PV glass, and balance of systems equipment such as inverters, combiners, and accessories

· OEGY also holds an exclusive, worldwide license to a solar thermal technology called SunCone™ CSP (Concentrating Solar Power), which is currently being developed to generate potable water and distributed power

· With the acquisition of WaterEye Corporation in December 2006 , OEGY intends to also develop and commercialize utility monitoring products.

Market Cap: $71m
Shares Outstanding: 92.6m

For those who have followed my trades for some time are probably familiar with this stock as I have already analyzed and traded it previously though was shaken out by the volatility with penny stocks and was forced to sell in order to minimize downside risk. I wish I was still holding after Fridays 42% rally ;)

Open Energy has placed a huge foot in the door with some major companies that will help expand its presence in the solar industry in the future. Being such a small company and the speculative nature of the products OEGY provides I believe this could be a huge hidden gem in the solar sector. I believe that solar tiles in the roofs of residential homes and commercial buildings have a fighting chance at becoming standard for all homes and commercial buildings as the the demand for sustainable energy is increasing heavily. Morgan Stanley estimates the solar industry will grow at a rate of 43% annually through 2010. I really like the idea of Open Energy’s products and believe this stock will not only be a great trade, but a longer term investment as well.

Partnerships:

- Partnership with Suntech Solar (nyse: STP) for the manufacture of Solarsave tiles and glass

- Agreement with the largest cement tile manufacture in the us, Eagle Roofing, to distribute products through their sales channels to major developers and roofing contractors nationwide.

Product Descriptions: Source From www.openenergycorp.com

SOLARSAVE® ROOFING TILES

Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Tile is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.

Features & Benefits

  • Easily installed using Roofing Tile Institute standards
  • Robust, weatherproof, fire-rated, fully warranted
  • Edge profiles naturally shed water
  • Durable low voltage system is safer to install and maintain
  • Modular, expandable system can be energy customized
  • Snow load capacity over 200 pounds per square foot
  • Wind load rating up to 125 mph with clips installed
  • Class A Fire rated
  • CSA certified; UL1703 listed; Class II 600VDC
  • 25-year warranty to produce 80% power output
  • Inverter had very high conversion ratio of AC to DC
  • Comes in different colors; black, red & brown

SOLARSAVE® ARCHITECTURAL PV GLASS

Open Energy Corporation also designs and manufactures custom PV glass laminates to meet the aesthetic, performance, and structural requirements of architects and design professionals. Sizes, shapes, and design configurations can be built to match virtually any specification available today, allowing for a direct substitution for monolithic, laminated, or insulated glass panels. It is often desirable to achieve translucency in photovoltaic skylight applications. While a standard photovoltaic cell is an opaque 125 mm2 square, our cells can be arranged within a clear glass panel to provide appropriate light levels and shading coefficients. A wide variety of colors, thickness, patterns, and shapes can be produced.

SOLARSAVE® ROOFING MEMBRANES

Open Energy’s SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membrane is a unique product that enables to maintain the natural look of your property while generating clean, safe, efficient electricity from the sun. SOLARSAVE® Roofing Membranes can be easily installed on commercial, institutional, industrial, and residential structures, making it an ideal solution for your renewable energy project.

Features & Benefits

  • A weather resistant, fire rated, low maintenance product
  • Easily installed by roofers with no demolition or disposal costs
  • 20-year warranty covers material and electrical performance
  • Highest per foot power output per square foot in the industry
  • Captures low light levels 2% to 5% better than glass
  • Minimizes power loss from shading, debris, and soiling
  • Superior aesthetics as well as performance features
  • No structural reinforcement or rack mounting required
  • Modular; fully scaleable and easily expandable

Recent Orders

Open Energy Receives $4.21 Million Order From SolarPro
Monday July 2, 9:00 am ET

Company’s SolarSave Tiles Will Be Installed in New Residential Development in Central California

SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jul 2, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB - News), a renewable energy company focused on providing solar solutions to its residential and commercial customers, today announced a $4.21 million dollar purchase order for SolarSave® PV Tiles from SolarPro International, a solar integrator based in Sacramento, California. Open Energy’s building integrated PV tiles will be installed on approximately 375 new single-family residences in the Placer County development.

Open Energy Receives $972,000 Purchase Order From Premier Power for SolarSave(R) Roofing Membrane System
Thursday June 7, 9:00 am ET

Project Slated for Luxury Destination Resort in Napa Valley

SOLANA BEACH, CA–(MARKET WIRE)–Jun 7, 2007 — Open Energy Corp. (OTC BB:OEGY.OB - News) today announced that it has received a purchase order from Premiere Power Renewable Energy, Inc., for a photovoltaic roof valued at $972,000 for installation on the new Bardessono Inn in Napa Valley, California. The property is being built by MTM Management, LLC, one of the leading developers of premier destination resorts in North America.

Interview With the CEO:

Open Energy recently had an intriguing interview with Market News First about their company and developments. Can be heard via podcast here: http://files.mn1.com/mp3/OEGY_071307.mp3

Conclusion:
The current fundamentals of the company are nothing impressive as they lost $6.2m on sales of $1.7m on their last reported quarter. Though with their innovative products and the demand for sustainable energy into the future, I think OEGY could be a major player in the future. As its products are manufactured through the largest solar company in China and the 3rd largest in the world, OEGY’s manufacturing capacities are nearly infinite and will be able to meet the demand for its products with ease. Open Energy further increased their potential when they teamed up with the largest cement tile roofing company in the US for product distribution. Now they’re distribution chains for their products are being brought to a vast amount of customers and I believe the orders for their products will continue to increase in $ amounts as well as frequency. The company is expecting to release its next quarterly report with the next 1.5 months, In the interview at MN1.com the CEO of OEGY.OB said we could expect to see a significant increase in sales.

Further Analysis can be found at: http://www.gaskinsco.com/linkto-oegy.shtml

Technical Analysis:

This is one of the most bullish stock charts i’ve seen in a while. The amount of volume building up to fridays breakout was quite significant which leads me to believe momentum, along with speculation, could drive this stock much higher from here. OEGY is coming off of its bottom and the momentum and speculation around Sustainable energy is bullish. 1/2 of this trade is going to be for a short term trade, the other 1/2 will probably stick around in my portfolio for a while as i think the long term outlook of this company is very bullish. Preferably i would like to purchase some shares around .70 near the midpoint of Fridays breakout candle. Though due to the momentum, we might have to settle to chase a rally tomorrow instead for a purchase.

Looking to buy OEGY.OB on Monday

oegy14.gif

oegy13.gif

July 20th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

CPTC*
XOHO
GTRE
ERFW*
AKNS*
DORB
AULO
TBLC
CYPE*

Major Exchanges:

NHWK
GNSS
SLW
BRKS
SLAB
LUV
TGB
MSFT
TASR
BQI
AVT
SBUX
DSX
EMKR

July 19th, 2007

Todays Bullish Stock Charts

OTCBB:

WWAT
OEGY
BVSN
GSCP
ERFW
NIHK
GTRE
CERP
CHNG
REED
ABHH
ACUR

Major Exchanges:

SVU
UAUA
NEM
DSX
CKSW