thetechnicaltrader.net

The last couple weeks have been a very exciting time for the TTT.net portfolio. As our performance dragged as the FED crisis came into place the portfolio dwindled to a low of 139% as little as 3 weeks ago. Since the Bernake opened the Fed window and cut the rates putting the bulls back on top of the game and TTT.net ahead of the pack powered by something, maybe even rocket fuel !!

Chinese stocks have been leading the pack lately and have made a lot of people in killing in this recent market. Thanks to CDS, one of my positions i bought back in June which i just sold for 151% making it the largest $ profit trade yet in my career as a trader. Today the TTT.net portfolio closed at 202.97% over the period of roughly 17 months since this site was launched and i began tracking my performance. As well we are outerperforming the S&P 500 by 1041%. Its been a crappy week for me as im caught a case of the flu and have been laying down in bed the majority of the day, but its been nice to wake up to the sight of BIG GREEN $$’s in my portfolio all week

The market has been very bullish lately as momentum continues to press forward. We’re coming up near all time highs again in the DOW near 14k as todays close was 13,912. It will be interesting to see how this record resistance will pan out for the DOW. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big triple digit drop in the DOW coming up soon after the recent huge run by the bulls. Guess we’ll see how it goes.

OTCBB:

CHNG
ABAT
SOIGF
RPTN
CPBY
CHLN
GTRE
SWVC
NNBP*  - Risky momentum penny stock play
CYPE
CXTI.PK

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

KONG
LTON
HRAY
ACTS
CBAK
HEB
SIGA
SQNM

OTCBB:

CAMH
TNRO
CPBY*
CHNG
GSHO
URCO
EGMI*

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

SCON
NOEC
VERT
CSUN
KUN
XFML
SOLF
SGN
CPSL
ASTIZ

About NetSol:
TechnologiesNetSol Technologies is a multinational provider of enterprise software and IT services to the financial services industry. NetSol helps clients to identify, evaluate and implement technology solutions to meet their strategic business challenges and maximize their bottom line. By utilizing its worldwide resources, NetSol delivers high-quality, cost-effective equipment and vehicle finance portfolio management solutions. The Company also delivers managed IT services ranging from consulting and application development to systems integration and development outsourcing. NetSol’s commitment to quality is demonstrated by its achievement of both ISO 9001 and SEI (Software Engineering Institute) CMMi (Capability Maturity Model) Level 5 assessment, a distinction shared by only 94 companies worldwide. The Company’s clients include global automakers, financial institutions, technology companies and governmental agencies. Headquartered in Calabasas, CA, NetSol Technologies also has operations and/or offices in London, San Francisco, Adelaide, Beijing, Lahore and Karachi, Pakistan. To learn more about NetSol Technologies, visit the Company’s web site at www.netsoltek.com.

NTWK popped up on my technical analysis filter early last week when they announced a record Q4 in which they swung into a late year profit on 84% revenue growth and EPS of .07. This resulted in price action to jump 36.99% on the day and climbing to as high 70% during the filing days session. During the fiscal year 2007′ NTWK has been in a slump with big losses reporting losses of -.09, -.08, -.27, and -.01 respectively for the last four quarters. With the huge jump in Q4’s earnings to .07 its no surprise to see the huge jump in price action this past week. Which was also on the companies record trading volume, a whole 372% increase in volume over any other week in the companies history since going public in 1998.

Even though NTWK reported record earnings of .07 for Q4 they still had quite an ugly year on a profit basis reporting -.27eps annualized for 2007. But this is all expected to change in 2008 as analysts are expecting a turnaround for the company reporting an estimated .21eps for the full year 2008 giving NTWK a low forward P/E ratio of just 6.75x compared to the Software & Programing industry average of 27.8x (according to etrade) making this small cap $44m company look attractive at these low prices near $2/share. Fair value for the company in its industry is estimated around $5.83/share found by multiplying the 2008 earnings estimates of .21 by the industries P/E average of 27.8. Mean price target by analysts are $4/share which would be around 100% gain from todays price.

Q4 Highlights:

Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2007 Financial Highlights
— Revenues increased 84% year-over-year to $8.6 million
— License fees increased 137% year-over-year to $2.9 million
— Maintenance fees increased 97% year-over-year to $1.5 million
— Services increased 57% year-over-year to $4.2 million
— Gross margin increased to 62% compared to 34% in the prior year period
— Operating income improved to $1.9 million compared to an operating
loss of $1.5 million in the year ago period
— GAAP net income increased to $1.3 million, or $0.07 per share,
versus a loss of ($0.11) in the year ago period
— EBITDA increased to $2.0 million, or $0.10 per basic and diluted share
— Business outlook and revenue generation for fiscal year 2008 remains
strong as NetSol scales up to deliver another solid year of growth.
RECENT HEADLINES:

Technically NTWK is looking very bullish as this recent jump in share price is back by some very powerful volume which suggests the likely hood of a new bullish trend in the making. Looking at the 3 year weekly chart we can see that price broke out of descending wedge pattern and has since had some profit taking. With wedge patterns like this, many a time price will retest the breakout point before a continuation occurs. So we could expect price to possibly retrace near $2/share before a continuation north takes place.

Looking at the shorter term daily chart we can see that there is some horizontal support near $2/share as well making this point look very attractive for an entry opportunity. As well, when large gaps like this occur price usually takes a trip down near the 13ema or 9sma where it then makes a bounce and continues its progress. Currently the 13ema is trending up and sits around 1.90 currently as of friday. So what we have here is some very strong support in the $2 area which would most likely be NTWK’s point of reversal from a technical point of view.

Overall NTWK looks very attractive at its current prices near $2/share and i think this could be an easy 20% + gain in our portfolios. Short term price target i would say near $3 share which would be a 50% gain if we entered near $2. With the current fundamental turnaround spiked by a record quarter, breakout in the longer term chart, record volume in conjunction with a powerful short term move, and the fact i like this stock makes me think that this stock could be a big winner for us.

I’m looking to buy NTWK most likely during Mondays session.
Optimal entry would be near $2/share.
Short term price target: $3/share

OTCBB:

RMDX
AKNS
UTVG
CPTC
CNEH* - DOH!
ZAAP* - About time it broke its symmetrical triangle!
JYHW
SPKL
DGLY

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

TARR*
HMY
BRCD
ACV
CNO
ARBA
SUF
ORCL
JASO*
ASTI*
XING* - looks deeply undervalued, but lawsuits have been screwing with price…
CPSL*
ZVUE*
GTF* - FDA approval
SDTH - should we give it another chance?
MCZ
SVA

Hot stocks on my watch list: MENT, NTWK

OTCBB:

CNEH
NTRZ*
WWAT*
PSEG
PVCT
ACUR

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

NTWK*
DSTI
JRJC
TGIC
MELI
NEXC

Quote from: Se7en on September 19, 2007, 03:18:23 PM

“Good to have you onboard ket, I bought a penny lower @ 1.60

Now let’s hope fous gives his ‘blessing’ and joins us …  ”
Haha first off nice job Ket and Se7en on your CHCG trade riding that bounce. NTRZ has been on my watch list ever since i sold it near $5 at its all time high for the last awesome trade we did with this stock  ;D And then watched it fall, then fall some more, then watch it miss earnings estimates, and fall even more.

At this point this stock has become very depressed from its all time highs near $5/share and closed today at a low 1.60/share. NTRZ has a great company going for them and are still in the works of moving towards a consistantly profitable company. I think investors got a little ahead of themselves in the beginning of the NTRZ run and rode the bull up to the top though were disappointed when NTRZ had some setbacks in there rate of profits whice caused this stock to fall from the sky. The company is still respected and is consistently receiving new orders from large companies such as they’re recently announced order today from Petco who has 850 stores in 49 States for their Dr. Vetz Flexboost product.

Currently the company is still in a rapid growth process as revenues are expected to jump 94% over last year for full year 2007 and analysts expect a continued acceleration for 131.3% growth in 2008 on .14eps annually, aka 600% earnings growth over 2007 giving NTRZ a forward 2008 P/E ratio of 11.42 as of todays close while the industry average P/E ratio is currently trading at 20x earnings. Given a fair valued Chance in the industry i think NTRZ should be trading around $3/share as we proceed into the future (.14 x 20x earnings = 2.80/share) and continue to rise from there. As i believe its less likely we will continue to see 131% growth in revenues as the years go on i still believe NTRZ has to capability to rapidly grow from here leading share price to higher highs as earnings reported and estimated continue to increase.

Se7en and Ket, You have my blessing

From a technical and fundamental stance i think this stock looks like its ready for a rebound from these lows. I think $2/share is likely in near sight on short term momentum.

Looking to buy NTRZ.OB tomorrow

OTCBB:

CNEH
KDKN
AKNS
UTVG*
CYBL - UP 233%
MNEAF
SYMD
WGDFF

Major Exchanges:

ASTI
ASTIZ
BBI
XLB
KR
QSFT
HLIT
FMT
SNCR
OIS
FMC
SDTH

About Universal Travel Group

Universal Travel Group, a leading air travel and air cargo transportation agency in Southern China, is engaged in providing reservation, booking, and domestic and international travel and tourism services throughout China. The company’s core services include booking services for air tickets and hotels as well as air cargo transportation and tour packaging for customers. Universal Travel recently completed the acquisitions of Shenzhen Speedy Dragon Enterprise Ltd., a nationwide cargo logistics company, Xi’an Golden Net Travel Serve Service Co., Ltd. which provides air tickets, train tickets and packaged tours, and Shanghai Lanbao Travel Service Co., Ltd., which owns and manages the award winning China Booking Association website http://www.cba-hotel.com/. Universal Travel’s goal is to become China’s leading travel services provider in the aviation, cargo, hotel booking and tour packaging segments. For more information, visit www.chutg.com.

I just can’t seem to get enough of these small cap Chinese stocks that are extremely undervalued. Seems like another one pops up every week Which i certainly can’t complain about as we’ve capitalized greatly on these undervalued Chinese stocks latley.

UTVG is my latest small cap China stock that i just came across today after it made a bullish breakout from its ascending triangle pattern with above average volume confirmation suggesting continued trending upwards for this stock.

Recently last month UTVG reported a strong quarter which beet the street estimates by 25% resulting in .05eps for the quarter. Currently UTVG is trading at 27x earnings compared to the Consumer Services industry average of 36.x earnings making UTVG look somewhat undervalued with its current reported financial status. Though growth story isn’t expected to stop as UTVG expects to report earnings of .24 for 2007 which entails 200% earnings from from 2006. For 2008 analysts are expecting UTVG to report .39eps giving them a low forward 08′ PE of just 8.56x earnings. We should expect their stock price to continue north to catch of with its future valuation as time passes. Theoretically for UTVG to be fairly valued in its industry we should expect price to proceed skyward near $14/share as we head into 2008. This is calculated by multiplying the expected annual 08′ eps of .39 x the industry average PE of 36x earnings which gives us an estimated share price of $14.04.

RECENT HEADLINES:

Overall this looks like another great opportunity for us to capitalize on an undervalued small cap China stock on the verge of a major move sparked by a bullish breakout of an ascending triangle pattern based on technical analysis, that is also backed by strong fundamentals.

Im looking to buy UTVG.OB during tomorrows session.

The markets advancing ahead of the FED meeting that is to take place at 2:15PM that we’re hoping results in the rates being cut. Technically the DOW chart is looking very bullish as the short term consolidation pattern is breaking out to the upside. Though this could all change in a heart beat in the FED meeting this afternoon doesn’t go the way investors want it. Lets watch for what the FED has to say this afternoon.

Stocks Advance Ahead of Fed
Tuesday September 18, 11:18 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer

Stocks Rise Ahead of Fed Rate Decision, Earnings and Benign Inflation Lift Investors’ Spirits NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks rose Tuesday as investors, heartened by upbeat earnings, awaited the Federal Reserve’s meeting on interest rates. The Dow Jones industrials rose about 100 points.Wall Street’s focus will be the central bank when it issues its decision on rates and its accompanying economic statement at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The slumping housing market, tightening credit market and volatile stocks have given investors reason to believe that monetary policy is in need of some loosening.

Most in the market expect either a quarter-point cut in the benchmark federal funds rate or a half-point cut, given last month’s decline in jobs and weakening retail sales. Equally important is how the Fed characterizes the housing, credit and stock markets’ drag on the U.S. economy, and if it suggests there are more rate reductions to come.As investors waited for the central bank’s decision, they were pleased to see economic and corporate data come in better than expected. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the nation’s fourth-largest investment bank, posted a smaller-than-anticipated 3 percent decline in third-quarter profit compared to a year ago. Lehman is the first of the major U.S. brokerages to report earnings from the most recent, tumultuous quarter.

The Labor Department’s August producer price index was also more favorable than the market predicted. Wholesale prices fell 1.4 percent last month, the biggest decline in 10 months and led by a 6.6 percent drop in energy costs. Core inflation, which eliminates volatile food and energy prices, rose by a mild 0.2 percent, as expected.

“All of the cards have fallen nicely into alignment this morning,” said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, pointing to Lehman’s earnings, the benign PPI, and a calming third-quarter earnings outlook from Bank of America late Monday. But everything could turn when investors react to the Fed decision.

“They’ve dug in their heels for 50 basis points or bust on the funds rate, and my personal view is they’re probably going to be disappointed,” Orlando said. “The potention for a sloppy market reaction is certainly on the table.”

Major Exchanges:

JNY
HANS
GBM
DIOD
BBI
MPEL

OTCBB:

CSCT

OTCBB:

RMDX
SWVC
DGLY
UFYC
ABAT
WGDFF

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

ALVR
COMS
MFE
CPST
FRX
NTO
POZN
TARR*
HEPH*

Last week there was a lot of action for the TTT.net portfoio after going thr