thetechnicaltrader.net

This chart is awesome like a mother fuzzin opossum. Could be another big winner as this chart has broken out of a double down trend short and long term. Notice the huge increase in volume leading up to this breakout. This tells me that momentum could keep running strong into next week from a technical standpoint. I’ll look more into it over the weekend.

I mentioned this stock earlier today on the shout box noting the bullish breakout we have in play here. This could turn out to be a big winner as techincally this is one of the best charts ive come across in a while. Price action has been driven by strong energy prices and news of acquisitions of Rio Vista Energy and natural gas producing properties. POCC owns 75% of Rio Vista.

More Info:

“The acquisition of these Properties establishes a significant reserve position for Rio Vista, and provides excellent prospective drilling candidates,” said Doug Manner, Chairman of the Board of Rio Vista GP. Ian Bothwell, Acting Chief Executive Officer added: “We have already identified immediate opportunities which will provide significant additional production, including workovers of certain wells and drilling of specific locations. The funding for these projects has already been arranged and we expect to begin immediately. I fully expect that once completed we will achieve immediate results. The Properties are located in areas known for generating prolific amounts of natural gas, which we expect will significantly enhance our revenue, cash flow and reported earnings. We believe that these Properties represent the initial step in transforming Rio Vista into a diversified oil and gas producer.

Based on recently completed reserve reports, the Properties have estimated natural gas reserves of approximately 25.0 BCF, made up of approximately 8.8 BCF proved developed reserves and 16.2 BCF proved undeveloped reserves (sted Based on recently completed reserve reports, the Properties have estimated natural gas reserves of 9 BCF, made up of approximately 2.8 BCF proved developed reserves 6.2 BCF proved undeveloped reserves).”

I’ll dig a little more over the weekend but i think just the chart alone here might be worth the speculation of buying.

Looking at the daily short term chart we can see that price made a strong breakout of a triangular pattern with a significant volume confirmation indicating this is the beginning of a longer move north. Though with todays 46% rally i think we could expect some consolidation and profits taken before a continuation occurs. Optimal entry in my opinion would be near $2/share which is also around the breakout point of horizontal resistance.

Taking a look back 5 years on the weekly chart this gets even more impressive with a pattern i suppose we could call a cup and small handle breakout pattern on a long term scale which leads me to believe this breakout is legitimate and worth at least a small position if not a full one. This Cup and Handle pattern suggests a technical target near $3.50/share or 80% increase or so from todays closing price.

I think I’m convinced here, i want to try and pick up some shares given the chance at or around $2/share

CHNG whipsawed me around a few weeks ago forcing me to close out of a losing position. That tends to happen a lot when you try to buy a stock on an absolute bottom. A much smarter, safer, and more reliable way to make a swing trade on a bottoming stock is to wait for a consolidation pattern follow by a breakout in price action to a higher high as we witnessed here with CHNG today. I really like the chart pattern forming here and think this could be the bottom for CHNG and a higher rally to follow. I’m willing to bet a smaller position for now on this breakout as i bought towards the close @8.40

CHNG Message Board

First time around we got hit with a hammer in the back of the head on the stock due to unfortunate timing right before the market globally collapsed which now has created a pricing opportunity for us to buy this stock at a deep discount.

let me regurgitate the fundamentals from my previous post:

“Fundamentally CAGC looks great as well with strong year over year growth and a positive outlook for the remaining quarters to be reported of 2007. CAGC.OB expects to report $46-48m in revenues on $8.4-8.6m. This guidance entails a huge year in growth for CAGC over 2006 increasing revenues by 62% and earnings by 60%. From 2005 to 2006 earnings grew 47% so CAGC is growing at a very substantial rate. I would say that CAGC conservatively could grow another 50% into 2008 given its continued accelerated growth which entails income of $13.6m in 08′ or .55eps. The Agricultural Chemicals industry is trading  at a 27x earnings multiple currently while CAGC.OB is around 1/2 that multiple with a current P/E of just 14.7x earnings. Even more impressive, if CAGC.OB is able to sustain my estimated 50% growth in 2008 this gives them a dirt cheap forward earnings multiple of 9.63x earnings. With earnings of .55 for 2008 we could theorize a future fair value in its industry around 14.55 found by multiplying the the Industries average earnings multiple of 27 multiplied by CAGC’s earnings estimate of .55.”

So this stock looks very attractive at these prices and appears to be on the rebound. I bought some shares today  after analyzing the 60m intraday chart. Price formed a nice looking rounded bottom breakout with the 13ema crossing the 50ma with spikes in volume for confirmation of a possible strong reversal in the making here.

disclosure: Long CAGC

Well i just got back from a 2 week long vacation that consisted of no travels, just hanging out with friends in town and enjoying my young 23 years of youth. It was nice for a while just waking up every morning with no worries about the markets knowing that 96% of my money is cash in the bank safe and sound. But i can only stay away from the ttt community and market for so long before i go crazy

The market has had quite an exciting past few days posting the largest 2 day gain in some 4 years coming off of support with volume which signifies the possibility of a year end run to re-test all time highs could be in play technically speaking with this momentum. Bernake hinted of rate cuts in his meeting late this afternoon in the upcoming dec 11th meeting which has sparked some bullish sparks back on wall st. I imagine there has been a lot of sideliners like myself who have been waiting to put some money back into the markets and it appears investors have been buying back some cheap stocks over the past few days, myself included.

Although the Us markets i still believe could have some more down side potential i think this dip that we encountered in China was a buying opportunity providing us with some opportunities to buy some dirt cheap stocks. Some of my favorites to mention are CDS, CAGC, CHCG, CHNG, CPHI, CHLN, CNEH, GBT, CHME, CPBY and im sure a few others that im not thinking of off the top of my head.

I went ahead and filled a position  in one of my old favorites that i haven’t traded in a while which Chinas Best Buy wanna be CHCG.OB. This stock rallied 24% today on upgraded guidance by the company for 2007 up a couple pennies bringing some positive sentiment back in favor of the chart after such a bashful trend as of late. Todays rally came off of CHCG’s lows where it appears to have formed a solid base around $3/share. I went ahead and filled a position today at 3.50. CHCG re-affirmed their growth with they’re latest 10q showing a 36% growth in revenues and a staggering 104% growth in net income. Analysts are expecting eps of .61 in 08′ giving CHCG a fair future value of around $11/share when compared to the electronic stores P/E ratio of 18x as well as Bestbuys Current PE of 18x earnings. This gives us upside potention of nearly 200%. That always looks attractive to me.

Disclosure: Long CHCG @3.50

Another old favorite of mine that i entered today after a long draw down in price action is GSB. This stock was in a very hot trend that we previously had been a part of here at ttt.net. After a nice gain was posted and we locked in profits price consolidated for a while until they released earnings which missed estimates by just .005 points in the face of the bear which lead to a huge sell-off in price and is now currently sitting right here around major support in the low 4 high 3’s which looks to be quite the premium given the valuation of GSB within its industry. They’re expecting eps of .26 in 2008 which gives us a fair value of $9.10/share which is over 100% gain away from todays closing prices which indicates we should at least be able to pull 20% here on a short term trade. I see price possibly running near $5 in the near term.

Disclosure: Long GSB

Sorry i can’t post charts right now for some reason my software is all fuzzed up but should have it fixes asap.

Major Exchanges:

CRDN
VSEA
VCLK
STLD*
OSIP
ATW
MOGN
TIVO
SOLF
QSC
AAPL
XOMA
CDS
ASTI
MA
AMZN
GSB*

OTCBB:

SDTH*
CPHI*
CAGC*
CHNG
CNEH
CHCG*
DGLY
CGLD
ICTL
CXPO

Bearish Shorts:

IGT
CCU
SNY
HCR
WEN
AVY
URI
BWTR
CNTF*
MDTH*

Long Like Donkey Kong:

OTCBB:

CXPO**
TAMO
EGMI* - keep on close watch
COPY
SPKL
CREG*

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

QSC
INOD*

I took todays strength as an opportunity to hop back into some of the deeply depressed Small Cap Chinese stocks that we have previously been trading and covering here at ttt.net.

First stock i’m taking a shot as is China Natural Gas that we first started covering here back around $3-4/share in June of this year before it made its huge run above $15 which gave us several opportunities to capitalize on profits. CHNG is expecting 70% growth into 2008, has a great looking balance sheet with a strong current ratio of 3.17 and zero long term debt. CNG stations are continuing to expand at a rapid rate providing more and more income for CHNG.  Looking at the chart here we can see this has had a huge sell-off bring price back down to support in the $7 range at horizontal support. Since May, looking at the RSI indicator we can see that every time it dipped below 30 and became over sold a significant rally has taken place. Lets hope we get somewhat of the same effect this time around. More information can be found on CHNG.OB in the Message Boards from previous analysis.

long CHNG 8.15 (1/2 position)

Second Stock i took a small 1/4 position into today was CDS. This particular stock carries slightly more risk for the short term period as earnings are announced tomorrow morning before the opening bell. I usually don’t carry stocks through earnings but i believe CDS, among most chinese stocks, will be up to par with there estimated earnings. Giving CDS’s estimates of .67 eps for 2008 and some stabilization in the markets i believe this has a future fair value in the mid teens.  Technically this stock made a false breakdown of horizontal support and the 50ema. False signals are sometimes the strongest signals of reversal.

More info from past analysis on the message boards.

Long CDS 8.10 (1/4 position) Earning out Pre-Market. Heads up!

Third stock i’m placing a bet on…. Yet again ahead of earnings breaking my trading rules….. DOH!! let me emphasize the risks involved such as when i took a hit from MENT’s un-warned earnings call and a 12% pre-market drop. The difference here is that we’re talking small cap chinese stocks. Chinas growth has been accelerating during the period of the upcoming results for Chinese stocks, making it a lot more probable that they will meet expectations. Along with the market oversold, a better chance that these small cap chinese stocks will possibly rally rather than tank on positive results. Either way its a gamble, and is why i’m not betting my full positions on this stocks. I took a quarter on CDS, I’m betting 1/2 on CHLN due to the fact it didn’t rally with todays market and am expecting positive results through tomorrows earnings followed by a rally. Technically price formed a doji candle right at heavy support today giving this Candle stick reversal pattern a more likely chance of following through. CHLN expects 1.21 eps in 08′ giving them a very attractive forward PE of just 4x earnings. Again, more information from previous analysis on the message board.

Long CHLN 5.20 (1/2 position)

Keeping an eye on:

SDTH
CHME
CPHI
GBT

Bullish Stock Charts:

OTCBB:

CHNG*
PNWIF*
CSCA
SNEN
UGTH
ZAAP
CREG

Major Exchanges:

DECK
HVT
SKYW
INTV*
ACTU
DCO*
ANSR
FOSL*
CELL*
IIT*
CEVA
O*
QSC*
CDS
GIGM
GSB

Bearish Shorts Yo!

JBL*
TEX
IBN
A
MR
GGC
AXL
PSUN
IT*
PCS
JBLU

Long like Donkey Kong:

OTCBB:

PTSEF
ZHNP
GSPG
CPHI

MAJOR EXCHANGES:

SMRT
FXEN
UNH
EXAS
COGN
SAPE
HTCH
SFF*
ECIL*

Bearish:

QCOM
MSFT
NVDA
PFE
YHOO
EWJ
HOQ
BRCM
EMC
RIMM
SBUX
C
ORCL
HANS
CSCO

BULLISH:

CNP
KG
XEC
PH
MIL
PBR
ROK
BR
ELMG
RSTI
CEVA
ECIL
FGOC.OB

BULL LIST:

SPWR
RND
CREG
ASTI
DIVX
PEYG
URRE*
THC
BRS
HL*
STP
TSL*
WWAT
DPDW
URZ*
XRA
KUN
END
ANO
GSB

SHORTS:

ARRY
HANS**
KWK
GIGM*
SOHU
NEWP
STAR*
gnss
FDP
YHOO - Checkout out potential for long side on a breakout of $34/share
ACN
VTIV
CRDN

This is a strictly technical short term “short” on GIGM based on trend analysis. I’m looking to pull a couple basis points and buy to cover near $20/share. GIGM made a huge run from $9/share to over $25/share just a few sessions ago. They announced they will be holding there conference call next Wednesday though i doubt I’ll be holding through due to the risk involved.

As of today GIGM is breaking down from its ever strong run along the 13ema with increased volume to back up this move with momentum. I expect continued weakness giving us a chance to cover near 20.

Short GIGM 22.16